Copper metal is known as the "king of non-ferrous metals", the recent international copper market is performing a thrilling soaring market. March 14, the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices up to $ 9,786 per tonne; Shanghai copper main month 2505 contract closing price of 80020 yuan / tonne, and Goldman Sachs, Citibank and other institutions are Expected to say, copper prices will break through the $10,000 per ton mark.
Copper prices rose by no means by chance, is the result of a variety of factors intertwined.
From the supply and demand level, the global scope of copper demand growth faster than supply growth. At present, the demand side is experiencing structural expansion. International Copper Study Group (ICSG) data show that in 2024 the global primary refined copper and consumption growth rate of 4.7% and 2.9%, respectively, are higher than the growth rate of 2.4% of mineral copper. The recovery of the world economy and the green energy transition have guided the demand for copper to continue to climb, such as in the field of new energy, the popularization of electric vehicles and the construction of charging infrastructure has significantly increased the consumption of copper. Demand has shown explosive growth, and in stark contrast, the global production of copper raw materials has failed to keep pace. Chile, Peru and other major copper-producing countries continue to decline in copper production, the number of global companies with a significant increase is limited. It is expected that the supply of copper concentrate in 2025 will still maintain a low growth rate, mine production disruptions, new production capacity constraints, and other factors will continue to plague the production and supply of copper. As electrification demand is strong, and the growth of mineral supply slowdown, Goldman Sachs predicts that in 2025 the global copper market will appear about 180,000 tons of supply gap.
And from the policy level, the macroeconomic and policy environment has also helped copper prices rise very much. Multinational central bank easing policy for copper prices to provide support, promote copper prices upward. In addition, the United States proposed to impose 25% tariffs on copper is expected to trigger supply chain concerns, prompting companies to stock up in advance to push up the short-term price of copper. For its part, Goldman Sachs said that net U.S. copper imports could increase by 50% to 100% in the coming months as U.S. China as the world's largest consumer of refined copper, demand from traditional industries and new energy industry to form a certain support for copper prices, its trade relations with major copper-producing countries in the stability of the global market directly affect the supply and demand balance. It is worth paying attention to, the recent release of China's "copper industry quality development program" and domestic policy to promote the consumption of continuous efforts to boost the market can not be ignored.
Look at the cost of production, the rise in costs also provides support for copper prices. Mining costs continue to rise, labor, energy price increases and environmental protection inputs continue to push up the marginal cost. Goldman Sachs research report pointed out that in 2026 copper prices need to be maintained at $10,500 / ton or more, in order to protect the capacity of Chile and other countries to stabilize.
The rise in copper prices has had a profound impact on related industries. Since 2024, global copper prices have risen several times to set a new record, undoubtedly bringing cost pressures to traditional industries such as electricity, construction and home appliances, pushing up the manufacturing costs of related products and intensifying market competition. The continuous rise in copper prices, on the one hand, forced downstream enterprises to carry out technological innovation (such as aluminum instead of copper cable), on the other hand, also called for policy subsidies in various countries to absorb the pressure.
Look to the long term, green energy transition and global infrastructure recovery will support copper demand, while the supply side of the resource constraints and investment cycle, the gap or will continue to expand. Some analysts point out that, affected by seasonal factors, this supply gap is expected to focus on the second half of this year to show. In this big change in copper prices, both investors and industry practitioners, need to pay close attention to market dynamics, make good response plan.
