April 24, 2026: What’s Really Moving Prices Right Now

If you follow copper prices even casually, you know the last two months have been a wild ride. From the sharp run-up in February and March to the pullback we are seeing this week, it is easy to get whiplash.

As of today, April 24, COMEX copper futures are trading at about $6.0150 per pound, down roughly 11% from the peak hit earlier in the quarter but still up more than 20% from where we started the year. LME three-month copper is hovering near $9,670 per tonne.

The question I keep hearing from customers is simple: where do we go from here?

Rather than guess, let me walk through what is actually driving the market right now – the good, the bad, and the uncertain.

If there is one reason copper prices are not back down at $4.50 or $5.00, it is supply. Plain and simple.

Mine output has disappointed for two straight years. This year was supposed to be a recovery year, but so far it has not materialized. A few examples:

In Chile, production has been flat to slightly down, with aging mines and water issues continuing to bite.

In Peru, social unrest has disrupted shipments off and on. Just when things calm down, something else flares up.

In Panama, the big mine that shut down last year remains closed, with no restart date in sight.

In Africa, Zambia and the DRC are ramping up, but logistics – rail and port capacity – are holding back the flow of concentrate.

The result? Concentrate treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) have fallen to levels that make life very difficult for smelters. When TC/RCs are low, it means smelters are competing hard for limited feed. That tightness eventually works its way through the supply chain and shows up in higher prices for finished copper products like tubes, rods, and wire.

Scrap supply is also tight in many regions. Normally when primary copper prices go up, scrap flows increase as people clean out yards and sell into the high market. That has not happened as much as expected this time, partly because industrial activity has been softer and partly because the scrap generation pipeline is still recovering from last year's slowdown.

Bottom line on supply: do not expect a flood of metal to hit the market anytime soon. The tightness looks structural, not seasonal.

Now for the other side of the ledger.

Demand is the reason copper is not pushing $7.00 or $8.00 right now. It is not terrible – I want to be clear about that – but it is not roaring either.

Let me break it down by region and by sector.

China

China still accounts for more than half of global copper demand, so what happens there matters more than anything else.

The property sector remains a drag. New home starts are down, and construction activity is soft. That affects copper usage in plumbing, wiring, HVAC, and fittings. There is no way around that.

But other sectors are picking up some of the slack. Grid investment is strong. The state grid is spending money on upgrades and expansion, and that consumes a lot of copper in cables and transformers. Renewable energy continues to grow – solar and wind installations need copper at every stage, from collection cables to inverters to transformers. Electric vehicle production is also still growing, even if the growth rate has cooled from the crazy days of 2022–2023.

So the Chinese demand picture is mixed. Property down, green energy up. Net net, demand is softer than a year ago but not collapsing.

Europe and North America

In Europe, industrial demand has been sluggish. High energy costs and general economic uncertainty have kept manufacturers cautious. Copper usage in automotive and construction is steady but not strong.

North America is a bit better. Infrastructure spending is starting to show up in real projects – grid upgrades, EV charging networks, data centers. Data centers in particular are a growing source of copper demand, both for internal cabling and for the power distribution gear that feeds them. But housing construction has cooled with higher interest rates, and that pulls down copper usage in residential plumbing and wiring.

What about restocking?

One dynamic worth watching is inventory levels across the supply chain. Fabricators and manufacturers have been running lean on copper stocks for months. No one wants to hold expensive inventory if prices might fall. That makes sense, but it also means the supply chain is stretched thin.

If demand picks up even a little – or if people start to believe prices are going higher – those lean inventories could trigger a wave of restocking that pushes prices up quickly. That is something to keep in mind.

Looking at the one-year chart, a few things stand out.

First, the uptrend from late 2025 into early 2026 was steep. Prices nearly doubled from the lows. That kind of move almost always leads to a pullback, just from profit-taking and exhaustion.

Second, the current level around $6.00/lb has been support before. It acted as resistance last year and then became support after the breakout. That is technically significant.

Third, volume has come down during the recent pullback. That is actually a good sign. It suggests the selling is not panicked or broad-based. It looks more like profit-taking and position-squaring than a rush for the exits.

I am not a chartist, but I have seen enough of these cycles to know that pullbacks after a strong rally are normal. The question is always whether the pullback finds support or turns into a reversal. So far, the evidence points to support holding, but we will not know for sure for another week or two.

A few things could shift the market significantly in the coming weeks:

A larger dollar rally – The dollar has been drifting lower for weeks, which has been supportive for copper. If the dollar turns around and rallies, copper would likely pull back further, all else equal.

Fresh mine disruptions – With supply already tight, any new disruption – a strike, a permit delay, a logistical problem – could send prices back toward the highs quickly.

A post-holiday demand surge in China – If Chinese buyers come back from the Labor Day holiday ready to restock, that could tighten the market further. If they stay on the sidelines, prices might drift lower.

US or European policy moves – Any new infrastructure or clean energy spending announcements would be bullish. Any trade war escalation would be bearish.

Let me end with something practical.

If you are quoting a project that will run for several months, I would still use a conservative copper price assumption – say, $6.25 to $6.50 per pound. It is better to be safe than to have to go back to a customer and ask for a price increase halfway through a job.

If you are buying for near-term delivery, the current pullback looks like a reasonable entry point. No one knows where the exact bottom is, but waiting too long carries the risk that prices bounce back up and you miss the window.

If you are a regular customer, you already know that we do not speculate on copper. We buy physical metal, we fabricate it, and we pass through the market price. Our job is to give you honest market information and reliable delivery, not to guess tomorrow's price. That is what we focus on.

Trading volumes during the China Labor Day holiday (May 1–5)

Any US dollar moves

LME and SHFE inventory data

News from major mines in Chile and Peru

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